Bay Point, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

045
FXUS66 KMTR 221640
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
840 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025

Mainly dry weather is forecast through the period, with a general
warming trend occuring. A few disturbances pass well to our north
this weekend, which might bring some light rain to North Bay
starting late Saturday and Sunday, and again on Monday. Mid to late
week, an upper level low looks to form and cutoff somewhere over
central or southern California. This may bring showers to the
region, or favor more of the Central Coast depending on it`s
placement.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025

Patches of stratus persist at the immediate coast with scattered
high clouds over the rest of the region. The main forecast issues
continue to be the warming trend for most of the forecast region
through the next week, and the cut off low and resulting
uncertainty that is expected towards the end of the next week. For
now, the forecast remains unchanged.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025

Picture from space this morning, shows a break between the high
clouds over the region, showing pockets of stratus and fog along
our coast and partially intruding into the North Bay region.
Patchy fog and stratus will be possible for these areas this, and
perhaps near Half Moon Bay and should mix out later this morning.
Dry conditions will persist with a mix of mid and high level
clouds. High temperatures look to be similar to yesterday`s. South
Bay and Central Coast valleys should make it into the low to mid
70s, while other valleys rise into the mid 60s to near 70s. The
coolest areas will be along the coast and in the mountains where
highs top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025

Near zonal upper level flow for much of the region, with weak upper
level ridging just to our south over southern CA. A series of
disturbances pass to our north. Rain is favored to the north of the
service area, though the North Bay counties may squeak out a couple
hundredths of an inch late Saturday into Sunday and again on Monday.
Dry weather is expected to persist elsewhere during this period,
with the warming and drying trend continuing. Upper level ridging
build back in midweek, which should should maximize our temperature
growth. Mid to late week, a cut off low forms over the eastern
Pacific and moves eastwards towards California. Ensembles and
deterministic data continue to favor it entering central or southern
California. PoP chances have decreased for the Bay Area, while
chances increased slightly for the Central Coast due to a slight
shift south in the model and ensemble data. Will need to keep an eye
on this as it could affect temperatures, and PoP values will likely
deviate some as we get closer to the event. Behind it, upper level
ridging noes into California briefly on Saturday, with a trough
forming off to its west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 229 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025

Fair weather and VFR persists through the TAF period for most
terminals. Patchy marine stratus this morning will give way to
mostly clear skies below FL200. Otherwise, a mix of mid and high
clouds continue across the region as a weak disturbance moves
through aloft. Some marine stratus will make a return to some
terminals around the Bay and coastal areas into Sunday morning, but
confidence in cigs is low.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through today with a low chance for marine
stratus Sunday morning. Included in TAF for now, but confidence is
low on coverage inside the Bay. Otherwise winds remain relatively
light and onshore.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Patchy FG around the Central Coast region
this morning, mainly over the water at this point, but will be hard
to tell via satellite given coverage of high clouds. Low confidence
in LIFR/VLIFR cigs and vis thanks to the high clouds and isolated
nature of the stratus this morning. Otherwise light onshore winds
and mostly clear skies this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 838 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025

Winds and sea heights will remain relatively calm into early next
week. A new, moderate northwesterly swell enters the waters by
Tuesday of the upcoming week, causing seas to build up to 10 to
12 feet.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...RGass

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